Super Tuesday is finally here. In less than a week, Republicans in 13 states (when including Colorado and Wyoming) will vote and caucus for their choice of nominee.
Donald Trump has a large lead in the delegate count. Senator Rubio is looking to consolidate more support in his quest to be the anti-Trump candidate. And Senator Cruz probably has the most on the line, as these contests have been the centerpiece of his campaign from the start. If he doesn’t emerge with the the biggest haul of delegates on a day containing so many conservative and religious states, it may make it impossible for him to hit the necessary 1,237 needed to win the nomination.
Overall, there will be more delegates up for grabs on this day than any other in the primary season. Here’s the breakdown.
The following states are easiest to understand. They allocate their state-wide and district delegates proportionally from one pot:
Alaska – 28 delegates – 13% threshold.
Massachusetts – 42 delegates – 5% threshold
Vermont – 16 delegates – 20% threshold – if one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, that candidate wins all delegates
Virginia – 49 delegates – no threshold
The next list of states split up their at-large delegates and district delegates. Each district has 3 delegates, and one can win a congressional district and take 1,2, or all 3 of the delegates regardless of how they do overall in the state. (To keep it simple, I combined RNC and statewide delegates into one category).
Alabama – 29 statewide delegates and 21 district delegates – both with a 20% threshold and a 50% winner-take-all threshold.
Arkansas – 28 statewide delegates – 15% threshold – each candidate that breaks 15% gets at least one delegate, and breaking 50% gives you all remaining delegates. If no candidate breaks 50%, statewide delegates become proportional with 15% threshold. Additionally, there are 12 district delegates – highest vote getter gets 2, second place gets 1, breaking 50% in a district gives you all 3.
Georgia – 34 statewide delegates – 20% threshold and 50% winner-take-all threshold. 42 district delegates – highest vote getter gets 2, second place gets 1, breaking 50% in a district gets all 3.
Minnesota – 14 statewide delegates and 24 district delegates – both with a 10% threshold and a 85% winner-take-all threshold.
Oklahoma – 28 statewide delegates and 15 district delegates – 15% threshold and 50% winner-take-all threshold.
Tennessee – 31 statewide delegates and 27 district delegates – 20% threshold and 66% winner-take-all threshold.
Texas – 47 statewide delegates and 108 district delegates – 20% threshold and 50% winner-take-all threshold.
Wyoming and Colorado have caucus activity on Super Tuesday as well, but their process does not elect pledges delegates on this day.
Trump is looking to compete across the board here. Senator Rubio is looking for strong finishes in many states, and may threaten a win in Minnesota, Virginia, Georgia, Arkansas, and the Colorado and Wyoming caucus activity. Senator Cruz is looking to win his home-state of Texas and compete in the other southern and more conservative states.